2019’s domestic box office total is projected to be the second or third highest ever behind 2018, even with Avengers: Endgame’s massive take. The past twelve months have been a fruitful one for Disney especially, thanks to hits like Endgame, The Lion King, Frozen II, and last month’s Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker. In fact, approximately 80% of the year’s biggest commercial hits were owned by the Mouse House, which is a troubling number for those concerned about a Disney monopoly on the marketplace. As that statistic indicates, though, 2019 wasn’t so hot for its competitors.
For example, Warner Bros. managed to score a big success with last fall’s Joker, but a number of their 2019 tentpoles (The LEGO Movie 2, Godzilla: King of the Monsters, Detective Pikachu) either disappointed or performed below expectations. That was more or less the story for most Hollywood studios last year, even as they tried and failed to breathe new life into long-running franchises like Men in Black, Terminator, and Charlie’s Angels along the way. All in all, 2019’s U.S. box office was down from 2018, but still ranks high on the all-time chart.
According to CNBC, the 2019 U.S. box office total is estimated to fall between $11.36 billion and $11.4 billion, which is below 2018’s take of $11.9 billion. That means it will still be end up being the second or third highest domestic gross of all time, depending on whether it exceeds 2016’s $11.38 billion in ticket sales. Interestingly, part of the reason 2018 exceeded last year’s take was because it got a boost from the many titles released in late 2017 (like Star Wars: The Last Jedi), which accounted for $958.1 million of its total. By comparison, the late-year 2018 releases (like Aquaman) generated $671.6 million in 2019.
2020’s domestic box office should get off to a strong start for similar reasons, thanks to smash-hits like The Rise of Skywalker and Jumanji: The Next Level, in addition to well-performing smaller films like Little Women and this week’s sole new wide release, The Grudge reboot. After that, it’s hard to say how 2020 will match up to 2019 overall. There won’t be a new Star Wars movie opening this year (the first time that’s happened since 2014), nor are there any once-in-a-lifetime cinematic events like Endgame on the horizon. Then again, if the films of 2020 are more consistently successful than those in 2019 were, it could buoy the U.S. box office’s overall performance.
Even Disney isn’t guaranteed to dominate the 2020 box office like it did in 2019 - not as easily, anyway. Multiple surveys have now shown Warner Bros.’ Wonder Woman 1984 is the most anticipated movie of the year, ahead of Disney-owned releases like Marvel’s Black Widow and the live-action Mulan. Likewise, the Mouse House’s competitors are bringing out their big guns over the months ahead, ranging from Daniel Craig’s final James Bond film to John Krasinski’s A Quiet Place sequel, Tom Cruise’s Top Gun: Maverick, and Universal’s ninth main installment in the Fast & Furious series. So, when push comes to shove, 2020 may not need an Endgame or Rise of Skywalker to thrive as a whole.
Source: CNBC
