While analysts can’t agree on numbers, all the latest predictions are for extremely strong iPhone growth in 2018 – with growth estimates ranging from 9.1% to 23%.
IDC is projecting 9.1% growth for iPhones in 2018, following 1.5% year-on year growth this year.
While IDC’s forecast is for the calendar year, analysts are focused on Apple’s fiscal year, which includes Q4 2017 with its iPhone 8 holiday quarter sales, leading to more optimistic projections …
The consensus Wall Street estimate is for growth of 13%, while Morgan Stanley’s noted Apple Bull Katy Huberty believes that the number will be way higher, at 23%.
Explaining the discrepancy, Huberty told Business Insider that Wall Street is misunderstanding the reason for Apple’s slump in China.
As evidence for that, she points to the fact that there is no reduction in appetite for Apple products generally.
High-end Chinese users want to buy Apple products, but the iPhone has not had a form factor change for three years. We believe that Chinese consumers are just waiting for that change.
Huberty also raises the often-forgotten distinction between sales and shipments. Most of the data out there reveals shipments – the amount of stock sent to retailers – which may not reflect end-user sales. She also said the higher quality of iPhones, compared to local brands, means that buyers upgrade less frequently.
Additionally, she says that while Chinese brands see their fortunes rise and fall, Apple has staying power.
We should get our first sense of how the iPhone 8 is received soon after the official announcement, now widely reported to be scheduled for September 12.
Photo of dummy iPhone 8 with iPhone 7: Forbes
